Port Vale 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Bradford meet at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale's home record at Vale Park: 4W 2D 1L from 7 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park.
Bradford (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bradford have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Port Vale's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Bradford's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port Vale 53% and Bradford 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 47% | Bradford 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.48 xG and Bradford 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.292 / defence 1.028 | Bradford attack 0.847 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.189. Port Vale carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Port Vale games / 15 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 45% | Draw 30% | Bradford 24%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Bradford 4.17. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 43% | Bradford 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 45% | Draw 30% | Bradford 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Port Vale 1.48 / Bradford 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.292 / def 1.028 | Bradford attack 0.847 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bradford xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Bradford kick off?
Port Vale vs Bradford kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Bradford?
Port Vale 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Port Vale vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Bradford part of?
Port Vale vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 45% chance of winning, Bradford a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Port Vale and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Bradford in?
Port Vale (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Bradford (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port Vale's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.85x) against Port Vale's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.29
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.52
1.03
Bradford xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.03 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale come into this having played 15 games, going 8W 4D 3L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Bradford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Port Vale's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 67%.
Defensively: Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Bradford in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Bradford have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Bradford away?
Port Vale's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 2.00 PPG; Bradford away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bradford in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bradford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Bradford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Port Vale 0-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 43%, Bradford 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Port Vale) and 43% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 29% of games; Bradford in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Port Vale's recent matches and 43% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Port Vale's recent games and 43% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Bradford tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bradford in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Bradford finished level at 1-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.48 xG and Bradford 1.03 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Bradford attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 45% | Draw 30% | Bradford 24%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 47%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.