Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oldham at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Oldham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Oldham have won 0, Crawley Town 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 42% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 42% | Crawley Town 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.884 / defence 0.981 | Crawley Town attack 0.610 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Oldham games / 34 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 5.00. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Oldham 1.35 / Crawley Town 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.884 / def 0.981 | Crawley Town attack 0.610 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Oldham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Crawley Town xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Oldham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Oldham 2 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Oldham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Crawley Town part of?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 52% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Oldham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in?
Oldham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oldham's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.55
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.07
0.71
Crawley Town xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
5%
19.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Oldham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Oldham and 0.71 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 12D 9L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.90 PPG from 31 outings (6W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Oldham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oldham's home form reads 5W 6D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.03 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 10W 12D 9L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Crawley Town away?
Oldham's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.40 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Oldham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oldham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oldham
3
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 47%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Oldham) and 53% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oldham have failed to score in 33% of games; Crawley Town in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Oldham's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Oldham's recent games and 53% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oldham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Crawley Town 2-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.71 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Crawley Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 20%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 42%, Crawley Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oldham arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.