Notts County 3-4 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 27 as Notts County welcome Sutton Utd to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 5W 1D 4L at Meadow Lane — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in League Two this season, Sutton Utd have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Notts County are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Notts County, 1 for Sutton Utd and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–5 with Sutton Utd winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Sutton Utd trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Notts County 73% and Sutton Utd 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 73% | Sutton Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 2.16 xG and Sutton Utd 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.239 / defence 1.241 | Sutton Utd attack 0.683 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.292. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Notts County games / 80 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 61% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 18%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Sutton Utd 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Sutton Utd 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 61% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Notts County 2.16 / Sutton Utd 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.239 / def 1.241 | Sutton Utd attack 0.683 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Notts County (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sutton Utd xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Notts County vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Sutton Utd?
Notts County 3 - 4 Sutton Utd.
Where is Notts County vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Sutton Utd part of?
Notts County vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 61% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Notts County and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Sutton Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 0W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Notts County and Sutton Utd in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.24x the league average against Sutton Utd's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.74
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Notts County xG
Total xG
3.26
1.09
Sutton Utd xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
49.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Notts County and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Notts County and 1.09 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Sutton Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 33 games, going 14W 5D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 0.61 PPG from 33 outings (3W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 10W 1D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Notts County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 0.44 points per game from 16 outings (1W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 0.94 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Sutton Utd in 64%.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 14W 5D 14L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 3W 11D 19L in their last 33 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Sutton Utd away?
Notts County's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.94 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Notts County
0
Draws
2
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Sutton Utd?
From 2 meetings on record, Notts County have won 0, Sutton Utd have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Notts County 3-4 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Notts County at 75%, Sutton Utd at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Notts County and 50% for Sutton Utd. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Notts County's games and 62% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Notts County's matches and 50% of Sutton Utd's.
Do Notts County and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat Notts County 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Notts County 3-4 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.16 xG and Sutton Utd 1.09 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sutton Utd outscored their 1.09 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.24 / defence 1.24 against Sutton Utd attack 0.68 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 61% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 18%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Sutton Utd win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 73%, Sutton Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with Sutton Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.