Northampton 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Northampton take on Salford City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Salford City travel to Sixfields Stadium to take on Northampton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 6W 2D 2L at Sixfields Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Northampton) versus 1.70 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Northampton, 0 for Salford City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Salford City trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 44% versus Salford City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 40% | Salford City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.01 xG and Salford City 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.942 / defence 0.917 | Salford City attack 0.937 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.160. Data: 25 Northampton games / 27 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 36% | Salford City 32%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Salford City 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Salford City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 36% | Salford City 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Northampton 1.01 / Salford City 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.942 / def 0.917 | Salford City attack 0.937 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Salford City xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Salford City kick off?
Northampton vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Salford City?
Northampton 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Northampton vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Salford City part of?
Northampton vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 32% chance of winning, Salford City a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Northampton and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Salford City?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 1 | Salford City 0W.
What form are Northampton and Salford City in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Salford City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.94x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
36%
2.78
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.01
1.00
Salford City xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Northampton and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Northampton and 1.00 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton's recent record stands at 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 10L across 25 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.68 PPG, Salford City on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 7W 2D 3L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 5W 1D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.20 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Salford City in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Salford City in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Salford City have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Salford City away?
Northampton's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.92 PPG; Salford City away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Northampton or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Salford City in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Northampton's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Salford City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2023, when Salford City 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 33%, Salford City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Northampton) and 42% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Salford City in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Northampton's recent matches and 50% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Northampton's recent games and 42% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Salford City tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Salford City in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Salford City 1-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.01 xG and Salford City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Salford City attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 32% | Draw 36% | Salford City 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Northampton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 40%, Salford City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salford City's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.68 PPG, Salford City 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.