Northampton vs Rochdale – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Northampton take on Rochdale.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rochdale make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Rochdale (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Northampton against 1.40 for Rochdale. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Northampton lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Northampton half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Rochdale half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 36% versus Rochdale 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 9% | Rochdale 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.97 xG and Rochdale 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.625 / defence 0.999 | Rochdale attack 0.910 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Northampton's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Northampton games / 11 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 33% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Rochdale 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 50% | Rochdale 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 33% | Draw 36% | Rochdale 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Northampton 0.97 / Rochdale 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.625 / def 0.999 | Rochdale attack 0.910 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rochdale xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Rochdale kick off?
Northampton vs Rochdale is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
Where is Northampton vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Rochdale part of?
Northampton vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 33% chance of winning, Rochdale a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Northampton and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Rochdale?
Record (4 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 2W.
What form are Northampton and Rochdale in?
Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Rochdale (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Rochdale's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Rochdale's attack (0.91x) against Northampton's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 9/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
36%
2.76
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.90
0.93
Rochdale xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Northampton and 0.93 for Rochdale, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rochdale sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Northampton against 1.27 for Rochdale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Northampton's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Rochdale have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rochdale's season.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Rochdale in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Rochdale away?
Northampton's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 0.83 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Northampton or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rochdale in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Northampton won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rochdale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Rochdale have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Rochdale 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Rochdale?
Rochdale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 33%, Rochdale 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Northampton and 50% for Rochdale.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 50% of games; Rochdale in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Northampton's recent matches and 50% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Northampton's recent games and 50% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Rochdale tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.