Northampton 1-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Newport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Newport County in League Two, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 29 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Northampton have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Newport County (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Northampton's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Newport County's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Northampton, 0 for Newport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Northampton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Northampton — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Newport County — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 47% versus Newport County 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Newport County 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.19 xG and Newport County 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.209 / defence 1.035 | Newport County attack 0.954 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.043. Data: 62 Northampton games / 62 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 40% | Draw 29% | Newport County 32%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Newport County 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 60% | Newport County 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 40% | Draw 29% | Newport County 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Northampton 1.19 / Newport County 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.209 / def 1.035 | Newport County attack 0.954 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Northampton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Newport County xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Newport County kick off?
Northampton vs Newport County kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Newport County?
Northampton 1 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Northampton vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Newport County part of?
Northampton vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 40% chance of winning, Newport County a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Northampton and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Newport County?
Record (2 meetings): Northampton 2W | Draws 0 | Newport County 0W.
What form are Northampton and Newport County in?
Northampton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Newport County (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.21) and Newport County's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newport County's attack (0.95x) against Northampton's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.47
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
Newport County xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Northampton and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Northampton and 1.03 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 30W 15D 17L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newport County's form line: 23W 15D 24L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Northampton against 1.35 for Newport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (17W 6D 8L).
On the road, Newport County have gone 12W 8D 11L from 31 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.31 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Newport County in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 30W 15D 17L in their last 62 games (1.69 PPG), while Newport County have gone 23W 15D 24L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Newport County away?
Northampton's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.84 PPG; Newport County away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Northampton or Newport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Newport County in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newport County won 3-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Newport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Northampton
1
Draws
1
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Newport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Newport County have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Newport County 3-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Newport County?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 39%, Newport County 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 45% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 26% of games; Newport County in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Northampton's recent matches and 45% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 45% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Newport County tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Newport County in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Newport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Northampton and Newport County drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.19 xG and Newport County 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.21 / defence 1.03 against Newport County attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 40% | Draw 29% | Newport County 32%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Newport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Newport County's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.69 PPG, Newport County 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.