Mansfield Town 9-2 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mansfield Town face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Harrogate Town in League Two (matchday 33). Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mansfield Town have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Mansfield Town have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Harrogate Town (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Harrogate Town have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mansfield Town, 3 for Harrogate Town and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Mansfield Town 4–1 Harrogate Town — a Mansfield Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 59% versus Harrogate Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Harrogate Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.01 xG and Harrogate Town 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.829 / defence 0.701 | Harrogate Town attack 1.031 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Mansfield Town have a tight defence (rating 0.701), which is pulling Harrogate Town's projected output down. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 76 games and Harrogate Town's last 76.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 35% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.83 | Draw 3.11 | Harrogate Town 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Harrogate Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 33 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 35% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Mansfield Town 1.01 / Harrogate Town 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.829 / def 0.701 | Harrogate Town attack 1.031 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Harrogate Town xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Mansfield Town 9 - 2 Harrogate Town.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town part of?
Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 35% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (1.03x) against Mansfield Town's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 76 games and Harrogate Town's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.11
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
1.96
0.95
Harrogate Town xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.95 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 36W 24D 16L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Harrogate Town's form line: 26W 21D 29L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Harrogate Town.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.68 PPG from their last 37 home games (16W 14D 7L).
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 14W 9D 14L from their last 37 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Harrogate Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 36W 24D 16L in their last 76 games (1.74 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 26W 21D 29L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Harrogate Town away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.68 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mansfield Town have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won Mansfield Town 9-2 Harrogate Town on 13 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
3
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 2, Harrogate Town have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2024: Mansfield Town 9-2 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 57%, Harrogate Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mansfield Town) and 54% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Mansfield Town's games and 60% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 54% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Harrogate Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 65% of Harrogate Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mansfield Town run riot with a 9-2 hammering of Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Harrogate Town 9-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.01 xG and Harrogate Town 0.95 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 9-2 for 11 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 8.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Harrogate Town outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.83 / defence 0.70 against Harrogate Town attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 35% | Draw 32% | Harrogate Town 33%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 11, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 50%, Harrogate Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 9 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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