Hartlepool 1-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Sutton Utd travel to The Suit Direct Stadium to take on Hartlepool. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hartlepool — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hartlepool's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at The Suit Direct Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Sutton Utd have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hartlepool 1.40 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hartlepool register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sutton Utd in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hartlepool, 1 for Sutton Utd and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Sutton Utd winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hartlepool trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sutton Utd trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 43% versus Sutton Utd 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 40% | Sutton Utd 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.48 xG and Sutton Utd 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 1.015 / defence 1.046 | Sutton Utd attack 1.061 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.101. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Hartlepool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Hartlepool games / 31 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 41% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 29%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Sutton Utd 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hartlepool as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hartlepool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 70% | Sutton Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 41% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Hartlepool 1.48 / Sutton Utd 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 1.015 / def 1.046 | Sutton Utd attack 1.061 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sutton Utd xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd?
Hartlepool 1 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd part of?
Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 41% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hartlepool and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Sutton Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Hartlepool 0W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Hartlepool and Sutton Utd in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hartlepool's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Hartlepool's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.44
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.70
1.22
Sutton Utd xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.22 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Hartlepool have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 11W 7D 12L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sutton Utd's form line: 14W 8D 8L from 30 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hartlepool on 1.33 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hartlepool have posted 2.00 PPG from 14 outings (8W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hartlepool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sutton Utd have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hartlepool are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.47 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 14W 8D 8L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Sutton Utd away?
Hartlepool's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 2.00 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Hartlepool or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hartlepool have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hartlepool and Sutton Utd runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hartlepool's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
2
Draws
2
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Sutton Utd have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Hartlepool 2-2 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 64%, Sutton Utd 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hartlepool) and 43% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hartlepool's games and 50% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hartlepool vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hartlepool's recent games and 43% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hartlepool and Sutton Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool and Sutton Utd finished level at 1-1 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.48 xG and Sutton Utd 1.22 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Sutton Utd attack 1.06 / defence 1.43, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 41% | Draw 29% | Sutton Utd 29%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 40%, Sutton Utd 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.33 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.