Hartlepool 0-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hartlepool at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hartlepool vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 11 as Hartlepool welcome Gillingham to The Suit Direct Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hartlepool stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hartlepool have posted 0W 4D 6L at The Suit Direct Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gillingham — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hartlepool 0.40 PPG, Gillingham 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Hartlepool in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 49% versus Gillingham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hartlepool 42% | Gillingham 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.14 xG and Gillingham 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.729 / defence 1.091 | Gillingham attack 0.635 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.006. Hartlepool's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Hartlepool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Hartlepool games / 9 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 46% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 22%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Gillingham 4.55. Hartlepool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hartlepool as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hartlepool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 30% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 46% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 34% | xG Hartlepool 1.14 / Gillingham 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.729 / def 1.091 | Gillingham attack 0.635 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Hartlepool (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gillingham xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Gillingham kick off?
Hartlepool vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Gillingham?
Hartlepool 0 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Hartlepool vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Gillingham part of?
Hartlepool vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 46% chance of winning, Gillingham a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hartlepool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Hartlepool and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hartlepool and Gillingham in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 0.73x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Hartlepool's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hartlepool Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.19
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
1.84
0.70
Gillingham xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hartlepool and 0.70 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hartlepool come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 16D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 0.84 PPG from 55 outings (9W 19D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hartlepool on 1.05 PPG, Gillingham on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hartlepool's home form reads 9W 10D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.78 points per game from 27 outings (4W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hartlepool are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.67 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 14W 16D 25L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 9W 19D 27L in their last 55 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Gillingham away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.37 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hartlepool and Gillingham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
1
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Gillingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Gillingham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Gillingham 2-0 Hartlepool.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 48%, Gillingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Hartlepool) and 33% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hartlepool have failed to score in 37% of games; Gillingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hartlepool's recent matches and 52% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hartlepool vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Hartlepool's recent games and 33% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and Gillingham tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hartlepool's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool and Gillingham finished level at 0-0 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.14 xG and Gillingham 0.70 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Gillingham attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 46% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 22%, with Hartlepool to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 42%, Gillingham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gillingham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.05 PPG, Gillingham 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.