Harrogate Town 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
EnviroVent Stadium plays host to Harrogate Town versus Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Harrogate Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Harrogate Town's home record at EnviroVent Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Harrogate Town, 1.00 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Harrogate Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crawley Town in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Harrogate Town 0W, Crawley Town 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Harrogate Town — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 50% versus Crawley Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 62% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.62 xG and Crawley Town 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 1.121 / defence 1.035 | Crawley Town attack 0.968 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.988. Data: 48 Harrogate Town games / 48 Crawley Town games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 52% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 4.35. Harrogate Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Harrogate Town are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Harrogate Town 60% | Crawley Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: EnviroVent Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 52% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Harrogate Town 1.62 / Crawley Town 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 1.121 / def 1.035 | Crawley Town attack 0.968 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Crawley Town xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at EnviroVent Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Harrogate Town 0 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at EnviroVent Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 52% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Harrogate Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Harrogate Town 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Harrogate Town's attack at 1.12x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.97x) against Harrogate Town's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.94
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.61
0.99
Crawley Town xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 0.99 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Harrogate Town's recent record stands at 15W 11D 22L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Harrogate Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 21L across 48 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Harrogate Town against 1.27 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Harrogate Town have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 8W 4D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 60%.
Last 48 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Harrogate Town's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.17 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Harrogate Town have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
6
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 0, Crawley Town have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 58%, Crawley Town 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Harrogate Town) and 54% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Harrogate Town's games and 62% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Harrogate Town's matches and 54% of Crawley Town's.
Do Harrogate Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Harrogate Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town and Crawley Town finished level at 0-0 at EnviroVent Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.62 xG and Crawley Town 0.99 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Harrogate Town fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 52% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 23%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 62%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.17 PPG, Crawley Town 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.