Grimsby vs York – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grimsby at 48%, yet in-form York provide a compelling counter-argument — this Grimsby vs York fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 14 as Grimsby welcome York to Blundell Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Grimsby have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grimsby have posted 5W 1D 4L at Blundell Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Grimsby are significantly better at Blundell Park than their overall form suggests.
York — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, York have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Grimsby in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
York in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grimsby 50% and York 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 50% | York 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.48 xG and York 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.995 / defence 1.098 | York attack 0.833 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 57 Grimsby games / 10 York games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 48% | Draw 30% | York 22%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | York 4.55. Grimsby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Grimsby 50% | York 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs York | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 48% | Draw 30% | York 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Grimsby 1.48 / York 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.995 / def 1.098 | York attack 0.833 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
0.93
York xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs York kick off?
Grimsby vs York is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Blundell Park.
Where is Grimsby vs York being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs York part of?
Grimsby vs York is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs York?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 48% chance of winning, York a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs York?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Grimsby and York will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs York have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and York?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grimsby and York in?
Grimsby (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. York (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.99) and York's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.29
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Grimsby xG
Total xG
2.41
0.93
York xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs York?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Grimsby and York expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Grimsby and 0.93 for York, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs York?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grimsby's recent record stands at 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 2L across 10 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours York by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grimsby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Grimsby have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of York's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grimsby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grimsby are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; York are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York in 70%.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
York
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and York in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while York have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or York away?
Grimsby's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.40 PPG; York away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Grimsby or York been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, York in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 40%, York 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Grimsby and 20% for York.
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / York away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play York?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Grimsby's games and 80% of York's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grimsby vs York usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Grimsby's recent games and 20% of York's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and York tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, York in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.