Gillingham vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Crawley Town travel to Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham at Priestfield Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gillingham at 1.00 PPG versus Crawley Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 54% versus Crawley Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 44% | Crawley Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.09 xG and Crawley Town 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.800 / defence 1.300 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Data: 50 Gillingham games / 50 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 45%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 2.22. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Gillingham 50% | Crawley Town 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Gillingham 1.09 / Crawley Town 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.800 / def 1.300 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Crawley Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Monday 29 March 2027 at Priestfield Stadium.
Where is Gillingham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crawley Town part of?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 26% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gillingham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
Record (6 meetings): Gillingham 2W | Draws 2 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in?
Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gillingham's attack rating (0.80) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
26%
3.78
28%
3.51
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.58
1.49
Crawley Town xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.49 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 17D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.88 PPG from 50 outings (9W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.12 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gillingham's home form reads 8W 8D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.94 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crawley Town away?
Gillingham's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.28 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gillingham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gillingham
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 64%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Gillingham) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Gillingham's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Gillingham's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.