Exeter City 2-1 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Exeter City at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Oldham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Oldham at St James Park in League Two, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Exeter City have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 3W 4D 0L from 7 League Two appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Oldham have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Exeter City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Oldham in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 60% versus Oldham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 60% | Oldham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.37 xG and Oldham 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.222 / defence 1.052 | Oldham attack 0.610 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.179. Data: 15 Exeter City games / 15 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 49% | Draw 33% | Oldham 18%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Oldham 5.56. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 57% | Oldham 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 49% | Draw 33% | Oldham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Exeter City 1.37 / Oldham 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.222 / def 1.052 | Oldham attack 0.610 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Oldham xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Oldham kick off?
Exeter City vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Oldham?
Exeter City 2 - 1 Oldham.
Where is Exeter City vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Oldham part of?
Exeter City vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 49% chance of winning, Oldham a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Exeter City and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Oldham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Exeter City and Oldham in?
Exeter City (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Oldham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Exeter City's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Oldham's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
49%
2.04
33%
3.03
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.13
0.76
Oldham xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
21.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.76 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 6W 8D 1L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oldham's form line: 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, 0.80 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Exeter City are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oldham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (3W 4D 0L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Exeter City are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.73 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Exeter City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Oldham in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 6W 8D 1L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Oldham have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Oldham away?
Exeter City's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.86 PPG; Oldham away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oldham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Exeter City and Oldham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Exeter City
0
Draws
0
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 2, Oldham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Oldham 0-2 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Oldham?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 57%, Oldham 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Exeter City) and 43% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Oldham in 43%; Exeter City have failed to score in 29% of games; Oldham in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Exeter City's recent matches and 29% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Exeter City's recent games and 43% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Oldham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Oldham 2-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.37 xG and Oldham 0.76 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.22 / defence 1.05 against Oldham attack 0.61 / defence 1.07, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 49% | Draw 33% | Oldham 18%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 60%, Oldham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Oldham's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.