Crewe 1-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 11 as Crewe welcome Mansfield Town to Mornflake Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crewe have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mornflake Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Mansfield Town — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crewe at 1.50 PPG versus Mansfield Town's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Crewe in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Mansfield Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 46% | Mansfield Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.21 xG and Mansfield Town 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.022 / defence 1.001 | Mansfield Town attack 1.179 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.006. Data: 9 Crewe games / 55 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 37% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 36%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Mansfield Town 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 50% | Mansfield Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 37% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Crewe 1.21 / Mansfield Town 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.022 / def 1.001 | Mansfield Town attack 1.179 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Crewe (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mansfield Town xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Crewe vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Mansfield Town?
Crewe 1 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Crewe vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Mansfield Town part of?
Crewe vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 37% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crewe and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Mansfield Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crewe's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.62
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.40
1.19
Mansfield Town xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Crewe and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Crewe and 1.19 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crewe's recent record stands at 11W 11D 33L from 55 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 17L across 55 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crewe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 8W 6D 14L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 10W 6D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.44 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 11W 11D 33L in their last 55 games (0.80 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 27W 11D 17L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.07 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Crewe or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crewe's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crewe
2
Draws
1
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Crewe have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Mansfield Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crewe) and 46% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 29% of games; Mansfield Town in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crewe's recent matches and 46% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crewe's recent games and 46% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Crewe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Crewe 1-2 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.21 xG and Mansfield Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Mansfield Town attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 37% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 36%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 46%, Mansfield Town 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.