Crewe 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 32 as Crewe welcome Crawley Town to Mornflake Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crewe — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 6W 1D 3L at Mornflake Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Crewe) versus 1.20 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Crewe, 0 for Crawley Town and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 4–2 with Crewe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 53% versus Crawley Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 49% | Crawley Town 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.93 xG and Crawley Town 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.124 / defence 1.124 | Crawley Town attack 1.040 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Data: 76 Crewe games / 74 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 46% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Crawley Town 3.23. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 50% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 46% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Crewe 1.93 / Crawley Town 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.124 / def 1.124 | Crawley Town attack 1.040 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Crewe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Crawley Town xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Crawley Town kick off?
Crewe vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Crewe 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Crewe vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Crawley Town part of?
Crewe vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Crewe and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Crewe 2W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Crewe and Crawley Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crewe's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.29
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Crewe xG
Total xG
3.49
1.56
Crawley Town xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
4%
22.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Crewe and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Crewe and 1.56 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 26W 25D 23L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 23W 16D 35L from 74 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.39 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (18W 9D 9L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 6W 9D 21L from 36 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.24 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 26W 25D 23L in their last 74 games (1.39 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 23W 16D 35L in their last 74 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Crawley Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.75 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Crewe's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Crawley Town?
From 7 meetings on record, Crewe have won 5, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Crawley Town?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 58%, Crawley Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crewe) and 53% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Crawley Town in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crewe's games and 53% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crewe's recent games and 53% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.93 xG and Crawley Town 1.56 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.16, drawn from 76/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 46% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 31%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 49%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.39 PPG, Crawley Town 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.