Crewe 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crewe at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crewe face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bradford make the trip to Mornflake Stadium to face Crewe in League Two (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Crewe (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Crewe have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bradford have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bradford's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Crewe, 1.30 for Bradford — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Crewe edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2024, ended Crewe 1–0 Bradford — a Crewe win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 49% versus Bradford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 43% | Bradford 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.33 xG and Bradford 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.087 / defence 0.842 | Bradford attack 0.880 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.244. Data: built from Crewe's last 63 games and Bradford's last 63.
Result probabilities: Crewe 45% | Draw 30% | Bradford 25%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.21 | Draw 3.39 | Bradford 3.97. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crewe 20% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, matchday 19 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 45% | Draw 30% | Bradford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Crewe 1.33 / Bradford 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.087 / def 0.842 | Bradford attack 0.880 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Crewe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bradford xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Bradford kick off?
Crewe vs Bradford kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Bradford?
Crewe 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Crewe vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Bradford part of?
Crewe vs Bradford is a League Two fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 45% chance of winning, Bradford a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crewe and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Crewe vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.09x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.88x) against Crewe's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 63 games and Bradford's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.39
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.25
0.92
Bradford xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crewe and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Crewe and 0.92 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 27W 18D 18L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 25W 18D 20L from 63 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Crewe against 1.48 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 6D 9L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 12W 6D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Bradford
Blended
Crewe (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Crewe vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Bradford in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 27W 18D 18L in their last 63 games (1.57 PPG), while Bradford have gone 25W 18D 20L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Bradford away?
Crewe's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.70 PPG; Bradford away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Crewe or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bradford in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crewe
2
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Bradford?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 2, Bradford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Bradford 2-0 Crewe.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 40%, Bradford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crewe) and 57% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Crewe have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Crewe's recent matches and 60% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crewe and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crewe's recent games and 57% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Crewe's recent matches and 87% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Crewe and Bradford drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.33 xG and Bradford 0.92 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against Bradford attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 45% | Draw 30% | Bradford 25%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 43%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.57 PPG, Bradford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 19
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →