Crewe 0-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to Mornflake Stadium to face Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 43. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crewe (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mornflake Stadium, Crewe have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon's overall League Two record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AFC Wimbledon are 0.80 PPG clear of Crewe in recent League Two fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Crewe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AFC Wimbledon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 48% versus AFC Wimbledon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 44% | AFC Wimbledon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.01 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.804 / defence 1.152 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.964 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.092. Data: 22 Crewe games / 24 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 30% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 41%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Wimbledon 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Crewe 60% | AFC Wimbledon 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 30% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Crewe 1.01 / AFC Wimbledon 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.804 / def 1.152 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.964 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
AFC Wimbledon xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Crewe 0 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 30% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crewe and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (3 meetings): Crewe 1W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Crewe and AFC Wimbledon in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.80x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.96x) against Crewe's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 22/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
30%
3.28
29%
3.47
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.22
1.21
AFC Wimbledon xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crewe and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Crewe and 1.21 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 14W 15D 39L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 14W 25D 29L from 68 games, 0.99 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Crewe against 0.99 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (10W 8D 17L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 7W 9D 19L from 35 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.07 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 68 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 14W 15D 39L in their last 68 games (0.84 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 14W 25D 29L in their last 68 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Crewe's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.09 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Wimbledon won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crewe
5
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 51%, AFC Wimbledon 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crewe) and 54% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 26% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Crewe's recent matches and 51% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crewe's recent games and 54% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crewe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Crewe and AFC Wimbledon drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.01 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.21 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crewe fell 1.0 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 30% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 41%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 44%, AFC Wimbledon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 0.84 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.