Crawley Town 1-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Rochdale travel to The People's Pension Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at The People's Pension Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Rochdale have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.00 (Rochdale). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Rochdale in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 0 for Rochdale and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crawley Town 70% and Rochdale 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 60% | Rochdale 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.62 xG and Rochdale 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.000 / defence 1.278 | Rochdale attack 0.717 / defence 1.590. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.132. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.590 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Crawley Town games / 37 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 49% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 22%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Rochdale 4.55. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Rochdale 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 49% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Crawley Town 1.62 / Rochdale 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.000 / def 1.278 | Rochdale attack 0.717 / def 1.590 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Rochdale xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Rochdale kick off?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Crawley Town vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Rochdale part of?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 49% chance of winning, Rochdale a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 0 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Rochdale (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.00x the league average against Rochdale's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.50
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.66
1.04
Rochdale xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.04 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 13W 9D 15L from 37 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 13L across 37 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.30 PPG, Rochdale on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rochdale's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Rochdale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 13W 9D 15L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 8W 16D 13L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Rochdale away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.26 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Rochdale runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
1
Draws
0
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Rochdale have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Crawley Town 2-0 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Crawley Town at 74%, Rochdale at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Crawley Town and 58% for Rochdale. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Rochdale in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Rochdale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Crawley Town's games and 63% of Rochdale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Crawley Town's matches and 58% of Rochdale's.
Do Crawley Town and Rochdale tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Rochdale 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Rochdale 1-0 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.62 xG and Rochdale 1.04 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rochdale landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Rochdale attack 0.72 / defence 1.59, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 49% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 22%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 60%, Rochdale 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Rochdale's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.30 PPG, Rochdale 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.