Colchester 1-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Colchester at 42%, yet in-form AFC Wimbledon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to JobServe Community Stadium to face Colchester in League Two, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Colchester (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester's home record at JobServe Community Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Colchester are significantly better at JobServe Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AFC Wimbledon are 1.10 PPG clear of Colchester in recent League Two fixtures (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Colchester, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Colchester — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 48% versus AFC Wimbledon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 41% | AFC Wimbledon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.22 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 1.042 / defence 1.001 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.882 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.075. Data: 68 Colchester games / 22 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 42% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 28%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | AFC Wimbledon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AFC Wimbledon (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colchester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 60% | AFC Wimbledon 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 42% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Colchester 1.22 / AFC Wimbledon 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 1.042 / def 1.001 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.882 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Colchester (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AFC Wimbledon xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon?
Colchester 1 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 42% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Colchester and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 1W.
What form are Colchester and AFC Wimbledon in?
Colchester (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Colchester's attack at 1.04x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.88x) against Colchester's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 68/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.34
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.17
0.95
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Colchester and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Colchester and 0.95 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Colchester come into this having played 68 games, going 18W 18D 32L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.00 PPG from 68 outings (14W 26D 28L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Colchester against 1.00 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Colchester's home form reads 9W 13D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 0.82 points per game from 33 outings (6W 9D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Colchester are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.10 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 68 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 18W 18D 32L in their last 68 games (1.06 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 14W 26D 28L in their last 68 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Colchester's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.21 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colchester have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Colchester
1
Draws
5
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Colchester have won 0, AFC Wimbledon have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Colchester 1-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 58%, AFC Wimbledon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Colchester) and 52% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Colchester's recent matches and 48% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Colchester's recent games and 52% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Colchester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Colchester 1-2 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.22 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.95 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 42% | Draw 30% | AFC Wimbledon 28%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 41%, AFC Wimbledon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.06 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.