Chesterfield 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chesterfield face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chesterfield and Gillingham meet at SMH Group Stadium in League Two (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Chesterfield (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Chesterfield at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chesterfield's last 10 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) — Chesterfield have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gillingham in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Chesterfield, 1 for Gillingham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Chesterfield 0–1 Gillingham — a Gillingham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Chesterfield — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 50% versus Gillingham 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 58% | Gillingham 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.47 xG and Gillingham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.083 / defence 1.152 | Gillingham attack 0.806 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.090. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 40 games and Gillingham's last 86.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 48% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 26%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.09 | Draw 3.82 | Gillingham 3.85. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chesterfield are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chesterfield if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 60% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 25 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 48% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Chesterfield 1.47 / Gillingham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.083 / def 1.152 | Gillingham attack 0.806 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gillingham xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Chesterfield vs Gillingham kick off?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 8 April 2025 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Chesterfield 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Chesterfield vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Gillingham part of?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 48% chance of winning, Gillingham a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chesterfield and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Chesterfield vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (1.08) and Gillingham's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.81x) against Chesterfield's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Chesterfield's last 40 games and Gillingham's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.82
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.49
1.01
Gillingham xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
6%
16.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.01 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chesterfield's recent record stands at 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 16L across 40 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Chesterfield against 1.15 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chesterfield have managed 8W 8D 3L from their last 19 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 2W 9D 8L across their last 19 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chesterfield are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.88 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
Chesterfield (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chesterfield
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Chesterfield and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 11W 13D 16L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Gillingham away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.68 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Chesterfield or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gillingham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Chesterfield and Gillingham, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gillingham won Gillingham 4-1 Chesterfield on 19 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chesterfield have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Chesterfield
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Chesterfield have won 1, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Chesterfield 1-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 68%, Gillingham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Chesterfield) and 26% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chesterfield vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chesterfield and Gillingham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Chesterfield's games and 53% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chesterfield and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Chesterfield's recent games and 26% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 63% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chesterfield and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Chesterfield and Gillingham drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.47 xG and Gillingham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against Gillingham attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 48% | Draw 26% | Gillingham 26%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 58%, Gillingham 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.45 PPG, Gillingham 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 25
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →