Chesterfield 1-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chesterfield face Cheltenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chesterfield host Cheltenham at SMH Group Stadium in League Two (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 6 games, Chesterfield have gone 2W 2D 2L — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.83 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%).
At home, Chesterfield have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 home games (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cheltenham — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cheltenham's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chesterfield at 1.33 PPG versus Cheltenham's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Chesterfield's last 3 home games and Cheltenham's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Chesterfield in-play and half-time data (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 50% versus Cheltenham 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 33% | Cheltenham 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.74 xG and Cheltenham 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.899 / defence 1.102 | Cheltenham attack 0.920 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.180. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chesterfield's projected output up. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 6 games and Cheltenham's last 6.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 50% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 26%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.00 | Draw 4.23 | Cheltenham 3.81. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 100% (last 3 home games) | Cheltenham 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, matchday 7 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 50% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Chesterfield 1.74 / Cheltenham 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.899 / def 1.102 | Cheltenham attack 0.920 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cheltenham xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chesterfield vs Cheltenham FAQs
What time does Chesterfield vs Cheltenham kick off?
Chesterfield vs Cheltenham kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Cheltenham?
Chesterfield 1 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Chesterfield vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Cheltenham part of?
Chesterfield vs Cheltenham is a League Two fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 50% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chesterfield and Cheltenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chesterfield vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chesterfield's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cheltenham's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chesterfield's last 6 games and Cheltenham's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.23
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.94
1.20
Cheltenham xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.20 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chesterfield come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cheltenham sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chesterfield on 1.33 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chesterfield's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Cheltenham have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cheltenham's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chesterfield are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham in 67%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Early Season
Cheltenham
Early Season
Chesterfield (Home) vs Cheltenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chesterfield
Early Season
Cheltenham
Early Season
❓ Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Form FAQs
What form are Chesterfield and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Cheltenham away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.67 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Chesterfield's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chesterfield
1
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Chesterfield vs Cheltenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Cheltenham?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Chesterfield have won 2, Cheltenham have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Cheltenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Cheltenham 2-1 Chesterfield.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chesterfield at 100%, Cheltenham at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Chesterfield and 100% for Cheltenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chesterfield and Cheltenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Chesterfield's games and 100% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chesterfield and Cheltenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Chesterfield's matches and 100% of Cheltenham's.
Do Chesterfield and Cheltenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 33% of Cheltenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chesterfield and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield and Cheltenham finished level at 1-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.74 xG and Cheltenham 1.20 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Cheltenham attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 50% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 26%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 33%, Cheltenham 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cheltenham's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.33 PPG, Cheltenham 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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