Bradford 1-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Utilita Energy Stadium plays host to Bradford versus Northampton in League Two, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 1L across 8 games at The Utilita Energy Stadium this term (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bradford are significantly better at The Utilita Energy Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Northampton (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton away from home this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Northampton are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 69% versus Northampton 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Northampton 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.26 xG and Northampton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.126 / defence 1.243 | Northampton attack 0.822 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.204. Data: 16 Bradford games / 16 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 35% | Draw 32% | Northampton 33%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Northampton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Northampton (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 88% | Northampton 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 35% | Draw 32% | Northampton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Bradford 1.26 / Northampton 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.126 / def 1.243 | Northampton attack 0.822 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Bradford (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Northampton xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Northampton kick off?
Bradford vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Northampton?
Bradford 1 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Bradford vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Northampton part of?
Bradford vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 35% chance of winning, Northampton a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bradford and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Northampton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bradford and Northampton in?
Bradford (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Northampton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bradford's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.82x) against Bradford's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.12
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.49
1.23
Northampton xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bradford and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bradford and 1.23 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 7D 4L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton's form line: 8W 3D 5L from 16 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bradford against 1.69 for Northampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.31 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Northampton in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Northampton in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Northampton have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Northampton away?
Bradford's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.62 PPG; Northampton away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Bradford or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Northampton in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Northampton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Northampton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Northampton?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 88%, Northampton 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bradford) and 38% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Northampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Bradford's games and 38% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bradford's recent games and 38% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Northampton tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Northampton in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Northampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and Northampton finished level at 1-1 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.26 xG and Northampton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.13 / defence 1.24 against Northampton attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 35% | Draw 32% | Northampton 33%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Northampton 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.38 PPG, Northampton 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.