Bradford 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gillingham make the trip to University of Bradford Stadium to face Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 43. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gillingham (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gillingham's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bradford against 1.30 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bradford lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Bradford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bradford — key trading statistics (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 49% versus Gillingham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bradford 44% | Gillingham 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.32 xG and Gillingham 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.801 / defence 1.112 | Gillingham attack 0.866 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Data: 87 Bradford games / 88 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 38% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 34%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Gillingham 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 40% | Gillingham 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 38% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Bradford 1.32 / Gillingham 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.801 / def 1.112 | Gillingham attack 0.866 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Bradford (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gillingham xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Gillingham kick off?
Bradford vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Gillingham?
Bradford 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Bradford vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Gillingham part of?
Bradford vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 38% chance of winning, Gillingham a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bradford and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Bradford 2W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Bradford and Gillingham in?
Bradford (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Gillingham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bradford's attack rating (0.80) and Gillingham's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.87x) against Bradford's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 87/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.52
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.56
1.24
Gillingham xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bradford and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bradford and 1.24 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 88 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 35W 27D 26L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 31W 22D 35L from 88 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Bradford against 1.31 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.55 PPG from 44 outings (17W 17D 10L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 12W 9D 23L from 44 away games — 1.02 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bradford are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.86 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Gillingham in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 35W 27D 26L in their last 88 games (1.50 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 31W 22D 35L in their last 88 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Gillingham away?
Bradford's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.55 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.02 PPG.
Have Bradford or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gillingham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Gillingham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Gillingham 1-0 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Gillingham?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 54%, Gillingham 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bradford) and 32% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham in 32%; Gillingham in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bradford's recent matches and 34% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bradford's recent games and 32% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Gillingham tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Gillingham 1-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.32 xG and Gillingham 1.24 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Gillingham attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 87/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 38% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 34%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Gillingham 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.50 PPG, Gillingham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.