AFC Wimbledon 4-2 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Notts County at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 2W 4D 4L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season.
Notts County — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Notts County have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.60 (Notts County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AFC Wimbledon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Notts County in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Notts County in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AFC Wimbledon 50% and Notts County 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 44% | Notts County 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.68 xG and Notts County 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.994 / defence 1.137 | Notts County attack 1.055 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.260. Data: 63 AFC Wimbledon games / 18 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 23% | Notts County 35%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Notts County 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 80% | Notts County 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 23% | Notts County 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.68 / Notts County 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.994 / def 1.137 | Notts County attack 1.055 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Notts County xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
AFC Wimbledon 4 - 2 Notts County.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance of winning, Notts County a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Notts County in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Notts County (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.99) and Notts County's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.28
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
3.19
1.51
Notts County xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.51 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 5L across 18 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 2.06 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County in 72%.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Notts County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Notts County have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.12 PPG; Notts County away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Notts County in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 5, Notts County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Notts County?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AFC Wimbledon at 75%, Notts County at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AFC Wimbledon) and 38% (Notts County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 62% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 38% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Notts County tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Notts County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Notts County 4-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.68 xG and Notts County 1.51 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Notts County attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 23% | Notts County 35%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 44%, Notts County 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Notts County's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with AFC Wimbledon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.