AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Crawley Town travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crawley Town's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG, Crawley Town 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 1 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 52% versus Crawley Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 44% | Crawley Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.95 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.196 / defence 0.914 | Crawley Town attack 0.934 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.330. Data: 78 AFC Wimbledon games / 77 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Crawley Town 4.76. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 50% | Crawley Town 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.95 / Crawley Town 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.196 / def 0.914 | Crawley Town attack 0.934 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Crawley Town xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 February 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 56% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 2W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.33
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
3.09
1.14
Crawley Town xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
33.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.14 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 22W 26D 29L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Crawley Town's form line: 24W 17D 36L from 77 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.19 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (13W 11D 13L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 6W 9D 22L from 37 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 22W 26D 29L in their last 77 games (1.19 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 24W 17D 36L in their last 77 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Crawley Town away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.35 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.73 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 57%, Crawley Town 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AFC Wimbledon) and 51% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 51% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 51% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Crawley Town tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.95 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 56% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 44%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.19 PPG, Crawley Town 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.