Accrington ST 1-0 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Oldham at The Wham Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Accrington ST have posted 3W 4D 3L at The Wham Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oldham — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Oldham have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Accrington ST 1.20 PPG, Oldham 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Oldham in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 59% versus Oldham 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Accrington ST 41% | Oldham 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.21 xG and Oldham 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.070 / defence 0.897 | Oldham attack 0.782 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.208. Data: 63 Accrington ST games / 17 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 44% | Draw 30% | Oldham 26%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Oldham 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Oldham 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 44% | Draw 30% | Oldham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Accrington ST 1.21 / Oldham 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.070 / def 0.897 | Oldham attack 0.782 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Oldham xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Oldham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Oldham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Oldham?
Accrington ST 1 - 0 Oldham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Oldham part of?
Accrington ST vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 44% chance of winning, Oldham a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Accrington ST and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Oldham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Oldham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Oldham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (1.07) and Oldham's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.37
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.06
0.85
Oldham xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.85 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 6D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oldham sit at 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.06 PPG, Oldham on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Accrington ST's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oldham have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.94 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Oldham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Oldham have gone 5W 8D 4L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Oldham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.50 PPG; Oldham away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Oldham in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Oldham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
0
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Oldham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Oldham 3-0 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 62%, Oldham 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Accrington ST and 25% for Oldham.
On the defensive side: Oldham in 62%; Oldham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 25% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Accrington ST's recent games and 25% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Oldham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oldham in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Accrington ST edge out Oldham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Oldham 1-0 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.21 xG and Oldham 0.85 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oldham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Oldham attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 63/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 44% | Draw 30% | Oldham 26%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 41%, Oldham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Oldham's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.06 PPG, Oldham 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.