Accrington ST 0-0 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 41%, yet in-form Bradford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Accrington ST vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Bradford at Wham Stadium in League Two (matchday 39). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Accrington ST — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bradford stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Bradford's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Bradford's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Bradford have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Accrington ST. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2025, ended Accrington ST 0–1 Bradford — a Bradford win.
Bradford have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 56% versus Bradford 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 58% | Bradford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.13 xG and Bradford 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.037 / defence 0.993 | Bradford attack 0.850 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.061. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 84 games and Bradford's last 84.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 41% | Draw 30% | Bradford 29%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.44 | Draw 3.30 | Bradford 3.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bradford (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Bradford's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 40% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, matchday 39 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 41% | Draw 30% | Bradford 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Accrington ST 1.13 / Bradford 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.037 / def 0.993 | Bradford attack 0.850 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bradford xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Bradford kick off?
Accrington ST vs Bradford kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Bradford.
Where is Accrington ST vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Bradford part of?
Accrington ST vs Bradford is a League Two fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 41% chance of winning, Bradford a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Accrington ST and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Accrington ST vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 84 games and Bradford's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.30
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.03
0.90
Bradford xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.90 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 84 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 26W 20D 38L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 39W 21D 24L from 84 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Venue Form
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 41 home games (15W 13D 13L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 15W 10D 16L from their last 41 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Bradford in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 26W 20D 38L in their last 84 games (1.17 PPG), while Bradford have gone 39W 21D 24L in their last 84 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Bradford away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.41 PPG; Bradford away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bradford in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Bradford won Accrington ST 0-3 Bradford.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Bradford?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 0, Bradford have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Accrington ST 0-0 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 49%, Bradford 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Accrington ST) and 49% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games; Bradford in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 54% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Accrington ST's recent games and 49% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 76% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 39, as Accrington ST and Bradford drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.13 xG and Bradford 0.90 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Bradford attack 0.85 / defence 0.86, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 41% | Draw 30% | Bradford 29%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 58%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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