Wrexham 1-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wrexham host Stockport County at STōK Cae Ras in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Wrexham's home record at STōK Cae Ras: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stockport County — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wrexham at 1.90 PPG versus Stockport County's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Wrexham have won 1, Stockport County 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (83 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (83 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 47% versus Stockport County 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | Stockport County 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 0.980 / defence 0.891 | Stockport County attack 0.929 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.122. Data: 37 Wrexham games / 37 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 36% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 31%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Stockport County 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wrexham 60% | Stockport County 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 36% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Wrexham 1.02 / Stockport County 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 0.980 / def 0.891 | Stockport County attack 0.929 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stockport County xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Stockport County kick off?
Wrexham vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 March 2025 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Stockport County?
Wrexham 1 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Wrexham vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Stockport County part of?
Wrexham vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 36% chance of winning, Stockport County a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wrexham and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 2W.
What form are Wrexham and Stockport County in?
Wrexham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 0.98x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
36%
2.74
32%
3.11
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Wrexham xG
Total xG
1.95
0.93
Stockport County xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.93 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 83 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 47W 18D 18L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 45W 22D 16L from 83 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.92 PPG, Stockport County on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 2.31 PPG from 42 outings (30W 7D 5L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 19W 13D 10L from 42 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wrexham are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.80 scored and 0.99 conceded. Stockport County's attacking output running into Wrexham's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 47W 18D 18L in their last 83 games (1.92 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 45W 22D 16L in their last 83 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Stockport County away?
Wrexham's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.31 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wrexham and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Stockport County won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wrexham's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Wrexham
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 2, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Wrexham 1-0 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 48%, Stockport County 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wrexham) and 55% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Wrexham's games and 67% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wrexham's matches and 55% of Stockport County's.
Do Wrexham and Stockport County tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Stockport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Stockport County 1-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 36% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 31%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Stockport County 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stockport County's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.92 PPG, Stockport County 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.