Wrexham 0-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wrexham face Bolton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wrexham host Bolton at STōK Cae Ras in League One (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wrexham stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Wrexham at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bolton have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wrexham 1.60 PPG, Bolton 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Wrexham's games and 60% of Bolton's (from Wrexham's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wrexham have won 0, Bolton 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Wrexham 0–0 Bolton — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wrexham in-play and half-time data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play and half-time data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 50% versus Bolton 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 53% | Bolton 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.63 xG and Bolton 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.103 / defence 0.994 | Bolton attack 1.064 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.168. Data: built from Wrexham's last 32 games and Bolton's last 78.
Result probabilities: Wrexham 46% | Draw 25% | Bolton 29%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.15 | Draw 4.07 | Bolton 3.45. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wrexham 60% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 46% | Draw 25% | Bolton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Wrexham 1.63 / Bolton 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.103 / def 0.994 | Bolton attack 1.064 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bolton xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wrexham vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Wrexham vs Bolton kick off?
Wrexham vs Bolton kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Bolton?
Wrexham 0 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Wrexham vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Bolton part of?
Wrexham vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 46% chance of winning, Bolton a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wrexham and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wrexham vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.10) and Bolton's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wrexham's last 32 games and Bolton's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.07
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.86
1.24
Bolton xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wrexham vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.24 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wrexham's recent record stands at 44W 17D 17L from 78 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 39W 17D 22L across 78 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.91 PPG, Bolton on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 28W 6D 4L from their last 38 home games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bolton's away record stands at 17W 9D 12L across their last 38 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.72 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Wrexham (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wrexham
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Wrexham vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Wrexham and Bolton in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 44W 17D 17L in their last 78 games (1.91 PPG), while Bolton have gone 39W 17D 22L in their last 78 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Bolton away?
Wrexham's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.37 PPG; Bolton away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bolton in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wrexham
2
Draws
0
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Wrexham vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Bolton?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wrexham have won 0, Bolton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2025: Wrexham 0-0 Bolton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 47%, Bolton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Wrexham) and 45% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wrexham vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wrexham and Bolton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Wrexham's recent matches and 50% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wrexham and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Wrexham's recent games and 45% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Wrexham's recent matches and 60% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wrexham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham and Bolton finished level at 0-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.63 xG and Bolton 1.24 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wrexham fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bolton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Bolton attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 46% | Draw 25% | Bolton 29%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 53%, Bolton 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.91 PPG, Bolton 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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