Wigan 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to DW Stadium to face Wigan in League One, Regular Season - 45. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Wigan (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 6W 2D 2L at DW Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plymouth have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Wigan, 0 for Plymouth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wigan — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Plymouth — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 60% versus Plymouth 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 54% | Plymouth 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.36 xG and Plymouth 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.081 / defence 1.093 | Plymouth attack 0.925 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.165. Data: 43 Wigan games / 44 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 39% | Draw 30% | Plymouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Plymouth 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wigan 50% | Plymouth 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 39% | Draw 30% | Plymouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Wigan 1.36 / Plymouth 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.081 / def 1.093 | Plymouth attack 0.925 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Wigan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Plymouth xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Plymouth kick off?
Wigan vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Plymouth?
Wigan 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Wigan vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Plymouth part of?
Wigan vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 39% chance of winning, Plymouth a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wigan and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Wigan and Plymouth in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.08) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.93x) against Wigan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.34
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.54
1.18
Plymouth xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wigan and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Wigan and 1.18 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wigan come into this having played 43 games, going 26W 10D 7L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.84 PPG from 43 outings (23W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for Wigan against 1.84 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wigan's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wigan are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.56 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plymouth in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 26W 10D 7L in their last 43 games (2.05 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Plymouth away?
Wigan's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.90 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Wigan or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Plymouth in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plymouth won 0-3 on 10 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wigan
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Wigan 0-3 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 62%, Plymouth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Wigan) and 48% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Wigan's games and 52% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Wigan's recent games and 48% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Plymouth tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Wigan and Plymouth drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.36 xG and Plymouth 1.18 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 39% | Draw 30% | Plymouth 31%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 54%, Plymouth 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 2.05 PPG, Plymouth 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.