Stevenage 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Burton Albion in League One (matchday 44). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Stevenage's favour (1.10 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Stevenage, 0 for Burton Albion and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Stevenage 2–1 Burton Albion — a Stevenage win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 41% | Burton Albion 47%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Stevenage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.97 xG and Burton Albion 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.752 / defence 0.781 | Burton Albion attack 0.775 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.166. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Stevenage have a tight defence (rating 0.781), which is pulling Burton Albion's projected output down. Data: built from Stevenage's last 43 games and Burton Albion's last 88.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 41% | Draw 34% | Burton Albion 26%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.46 | Draw 2.96 | Burton Albion 3.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Burton Albion's lower xG of 0.71 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 20% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 44 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 41% | Draw 34% | Burton Albion 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Stevenage 0.97 / Burton Albion 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.752 / def 0.781 | Burton Albion attack 0.775 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Burton Albion xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Burton Albion kick off?
Stevenage vs Burton Albion kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Stevenage 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Stevenage vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Burton Albion part of?
Stevenage vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 41% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Stevenage and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Stevenage vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.75x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.78x) against Stevenage's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 43 games and Burton Albion's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.96
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.68
0.71
Burton Albion xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.17
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 13.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.71 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 88 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 41W 26D 21L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 25W 21D 42L from 88 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 44 home games (26W 10D 8L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 10W 10D 24L from their last 44 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.02 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 41W 26D 21L in their last 88 games (1.69 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 25W 21D 42L in their last 88 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Burton Albion away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Stevenage and Burton Albion, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Burton Albion?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 2, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stevenage) and 52% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Burton Albion in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stevenage's recent games and 52% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Stevenage's recent matches and 64% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Stevenage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Stevenage 1-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.97 xG and Burton Albion 0.71 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.75 / defence 0.78 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 41% | Draw 34% | Burton Albion 26%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 41%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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