Shrewsbury 0-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Montgomery Waters Meadow plays host to Shrewsbury versus Bolton in League One, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shrewsbury's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's home record at Montgomery Waters Meadow: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Bolton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bolton have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Shrewsbury's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shrewsbury 0W, Bolton 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 52% versus Bolton 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.27 xG and Bolton 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.923 / defence 0.870 | Bolton attack 0.679 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.236. Bolton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Shrewsbury games / 25 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 48% | Draw 31% | Bolton 21%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Bolton 4.76. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 60% | Bolton 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 48% | Draw 31% | Bolton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Shrewsbury 1.27 / Bolton 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.923 / def 0.870 | Bolton attack 0.679 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Bolton xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Bolton kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Bolton?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Bolton part of?
Shrewsbury vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 48% chance of winning, Bolton a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shrewsbury and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Bolton in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Bolton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bolton's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.68x) against Shrewsbury's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.22
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Bolton xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
6%
17.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 0.73 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 8W 6D 11L from 25 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 12L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.16 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bolton's away record stands at 3W 0D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bolton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.28 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Bolton in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Bolton have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Bolton away?
Shrewsbury's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 2.00 PPG; Bolton away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Bolton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Shrewsbury 2-3 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 58%, Bolton 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shrewsbury) and 42% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bolton in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 25% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 42% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Bolton tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bolton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.27 xG and Bolton 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Bolton attack 0.68 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 48% | Draw 31% | Bolton 21%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bolton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bolton's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.20 PPG, Bolton 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.