Portsmouth 4-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 4 as Portsmouth welcome Cambridge United to Fratton Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Portsmouth have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Portsmouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fratton Park. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.80 PPG, Cambridge United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Portsmouth, 1 for Cambridge United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 47% versus Cambridge United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | Cambridge United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.63 xG and Cambridge United 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.091 / defence 0.907 | Cambridge United attack 0.890 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.067. Data: 49 Portsmouth games / 49 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 20%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Cambridge United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 50% | Cambridge United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Portsmouth 1.63 / Cambridge United 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.091 / def 0.907 | Cambridge United attack 0.890 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cambridge United xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Cambridge United kick off?
Portsmouth vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Portsmouth 4 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United part of?
Portsmouth vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 55% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Portsmouth and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
Record (2 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 1 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Cambridge United in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.00
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.49
0.86
Cambridge United xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
26.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.86 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth come into this having played 49 games, going 21W 15D 13L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.31 PPG from 49 outings (17W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Portsmouth on 1.59 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Portsmouth's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.20 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Early Season
Cambridge United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 21W 15D 13L in their last 49 games (1.59 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Cambridge United away?
Portsmouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2022, when Portsmouth won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Portsmouth
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 3, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Portsmouth 3-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Cambridge United?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 50%, Cambridge United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Portsmouth and 54% for Cambridge United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 54% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Portsmouth's matches and 54% of Cambridge United's.
Do Portsmouth and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Cambridge United 4-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.63 xG and Cambridge United 0.86 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Cambridge United attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 55% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 20%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Cambridge United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.59 PPG, Cambridge United 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.