Plymouth 2-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Peterborough travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Home Park this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Peterborough's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 44% versus Peterborough 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 44% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.53 xG and Peterborough 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.933 / defence 0.877 | Peterborough attack 1.116 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.067. Data: 48 Plymouth games / 2 Peterborough games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 48% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 26%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 3.85. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Peterborough (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 0% | Peterborough 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 48% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Plymouth 1.53 / Peterborough 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.933 / def 0.877 | Peterborough attack 1.116 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Peterborough xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Peterborough kick off?
Plymouth vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Plymouth 2 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Plymouth vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Peterborough part of?
Plymouth vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 48% chance of winning, Peterborough a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plymouth and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.93x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.90
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.57
1.04
Peterborough xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.04 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 24W 11D 13L from 48 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 27L across 48 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 15W 4D 5L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 4W 3D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.02 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 11W 10D 27L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Peterborough away?
Plymouth's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.04 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Peterborough in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Peterborough runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Peterborough won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 33%, Peterborough 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Plymouth) and 67% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Peterborough in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Plymouth's recent matches and 42% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Plymouth's recent games and 67% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Peterborough tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Peterborough 2-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.53 xG and Peterborough 1.04 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Peterborough landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 48% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 26%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 44%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.