Plymouth 2-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Cheltenham travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Park this season.
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cheltenham's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Plymouth have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 1, Cheltenham 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cheltenham trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 50% versus Cheltenham 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 50% | Cheltenham 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.85 xG and Cheltenham 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.081 / defence 0.833 | Cheltenham attack 1.097 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.180. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Plymouth games / 38 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 21%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Cheltenham 4.76. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 20% | Cheltenham 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Plymouth 1.85 / Cheltenham 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.081 / def 0.833 | Cheltenham attack 1.097 / def 1.528 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cheltenham xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Cheltenham kick off?
Plymouth vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 March 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cheltenham?
Plymouth 2 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Plymouth vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cheltenham part of?
Plymouth vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 54% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plymouth and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cheltenham?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Cheltenham in?
Plymouth (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.08) and Cheltenham's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.96
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.93
1.08
Cheltenham xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
30.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.08 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth's recent record stands at 21W 8D 9L from 38 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 12L across 38 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cheltenham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 11W 3D 4L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 3W 8D 7L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.45 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham in 66%.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cheltenham away?
Plymouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Plymouth's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Plymouth
0
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Cheltenham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Plymouth 4-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Cheltenham?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 44%, Cheltenham 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plymouth) and 56% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Plymouth's games and 72% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plymouth's recent games and 56% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cheltenham 2-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.85 xG and Cheltenham 1.08 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cheltenham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Cheltenham attack 1.10 / defence 1.53, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 21%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 50%, Cheltenham 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cheltenham's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.