Peterborough 0-3 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Peterborough at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Peterborough face Mansfield Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Mansfield Town in League One (matchday 22). Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Peterborough have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Peterborough are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Peterborough, 0.80 for Mansfield Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 66% and Mansfield Town 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 69% | Mansfield Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.95 xG and Mansfield Town 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.493 / defence 1.411 | Mansfield Town attack 0.797 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.161. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.493 — their 1.95 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Mansfield Town's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.411 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mansfield Town's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 66 games and Mansfield Town's last 19.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 52% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.91 | Draw 4.54 | Mansfield Town 3.91. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.95 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Mansfield Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 80% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, matchday 22 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 52% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Peterborough 1.95 / Mansfield Town 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.493 / def 1.411 | Mansfield Town attack 0.797 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Mansfield Town xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Peterborough 0 - 3 Mansfield Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town part of?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town is a League One fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 52% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Peterborough and Mansfield Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.49x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.80x) against Peterborough's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 66 games and Mansfield Town's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
52%
1.91
22%
4.54
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.25
1.31
Mansfield Town xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
27.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.31 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough come into this having played 65 games, going 29W 13D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.75 PPG from 65 outings (32W 18D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Peterborough against 1.75 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Peterborough's home form reads 17W 7D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.66 points per game from their last 32 away games (15W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.74 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Mansfield Town in 62%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 29W 13D 23L in their last 65 games (1.54 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 32W 18D 15L in their last 65 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Mansfield Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.81 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Peterborough and Mansfield Town, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won Peterborough 0-3 Mansfield Town on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Peterborough 2-1 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Peterborough, 66% for Mansfield Town — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Peterborough and 56% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Mansfield Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Peterborough's games and 66% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Peterborough and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Peterborough's matches and 56% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Peterborough and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Peterborough's recent matches and 78% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mansfield Town run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Peterborough 0-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.95 xG and Mansfield Town 1.31 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.49 / defence 1.41 against Mansfield Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 52% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 26%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Mansfield Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.54 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 22
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →