Peterborough 2-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Peterborough host Derby at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Derby have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Peterborough at 1.60 PPG versus Derby's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Peterborough, 2 for Derby and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 45% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 61% | Derby 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.68 xG and Derby 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.077 / defence 1.354 | Derby attack 1.149 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.131. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Peterborough games / 37 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 37% | Draw 23% | Derby 40%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 40% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 37% | Draw 23% | Derby 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Peterborough 1.68 / Derby 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.077 / def 1.354 | Derby attack 1.149 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Derby (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Derby xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Derby kick off?
Peterborough vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 March 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Derby?
Peterborough 2 - 0 Derby.
Where is Peterborough vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Derby part of?
Peterborough vs Derby is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 37% chance of winning, Derby a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Peterborough and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Derby in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
37%
2.72
23%
4.35
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.44
1.76
Derby xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.76 for Derby, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 83 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 28W 13D 42L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 32W 23D 28L from 83 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.17 PPG, Derby on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.46 PPG from 41 outings (17W 9D 15L).
On the road, Derby have gone 9W 12D 20L from 41 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.25 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Derby in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 13D 42L in their last 83 games (1.17 PPG), while Derby have gone 32W 23D 28L in their last 83 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Derby away?
Peterborough's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.46 PPG; Derby away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Derby in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Peterborough's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Peterborough
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2024, when Derby 2-3 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Derby see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 44%, Derby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Peterborough) and 39% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 37% of games; Derby in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Peterborough's recent matches and 46% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Peterborough's recent games and 39% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Derby tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Derby in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Derby 2-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.68 xG and Derby 1.76 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Derby landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.08 / defence 1.35 against Derby attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 37% | Draw 23% | Derby 40%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Derby 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.17 PPG, Derby 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.