Peterborough 3-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 5W 2D 3L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bolton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Peterborough against 1.60 for Bolton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bolton, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Bolton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bolton have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bolton — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 61% versus Bolton 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Bolton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.32 xG and Bolton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.019 / defence 0.910 | Bolton attack 0.861 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.095. Data: 70 Peterborough games / 70 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 28% | Bolton 24%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Bolton 4.17. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Peterborough 50% | Bolton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 28% | Bolton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Peterborough 1.32 / Bolton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.019 / def 0.910 | Bolton attack 0.861 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bolton xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Bolton kick off?
Peterborough vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Peterborough 3 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Peterborough vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Bolton part of?
Peterborough vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 47% chance of winning, Bolton a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Peterborough and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
Record (7 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 3 | Bolton 4W.
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.02) and Bolton's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.86x) against Peterborough's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.54
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.18
0.86
Bolton xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.86 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 70 games, going 23W 14D 33L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.53 PPG from 70 outings (30W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Peterborough against 1.53 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 13W 9D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.40 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 23W 14D 33L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Bolton have gone 30W 17D 23L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Bolton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.41 PPG; Bolton away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 0-5 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Peterborough
3
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 59%, Bolton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Peterborough) and 47% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 26% of games; Bolton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Peterborough's games and 62% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Peterborough's recent games and 47% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Bolton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bolton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Bolton 3-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.32 xG and Bolton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Bolton attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 28% | Bolton 24%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Bolton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Bolton 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.