Peterborough 1-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bolton — this Peterborough vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One (matchday 45). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Peterborough have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bolton's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Bolton have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Peterborough against 0.90 for Bolton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bolton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bolton have the stronger record — 3 wins to Peterborough's 0, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Peterborough 0–1 Bolton — a Bolton win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bolton have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 35 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Bolton 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 64% | Bolton 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Peterborough surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Bolton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.92 xG and Bolton 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.120 / defence 1.214 | Bolton attack 1.051 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.182. Bolton's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bolton's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 89 games and Bolton's last 90.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 22% | Bolton 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.11 | Draw 4.50 | Bolton 3.30. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 60% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 22% | Bolton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Peterborough 1.92 / Bolton 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.120 / def 1.214 | Bolton attack 1.051 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Bolton xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Bolton kick off?
Peterborough vs Bolton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Peterborough vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Bolton part of?
Peterborough vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 47% chance of winning, Bolton a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Peterborough and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.12) and Bolton's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.05x) against Peterborough's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 89 games and Bolton's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
47%
2.11
22%
4.50
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.43
1.51
Bolton xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
4%
22.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.51 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 91 games, going 38W 21D 32L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.65 PPG from 91 outings (44W 18D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Peterborough against 1.65 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 20W 12D 13L across their last 45 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.49 points per game from their last 45 away games (19W 10D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.65 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 38W 21D 32L in their last 91 games (1.48 PPG), while Bolton have gone 44W 18D 29L in their last 91 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Bolton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.60 PPG; Bolton away: 1.49 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won Peterborough 0-5 Bolton on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Peterborough
3
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 64%, Bolton 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Peterborough) and 49% (Bolton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Bolton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Peterborough's games and 53% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Peterborough and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Peterborough's matches and 49% of Bolton's.
Do Peterborough and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Peterborough's recent matches and 62% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Peterborough and Bolton drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.92 xG and Bolton 1.51 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Peterborough fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 1.21 against Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 1.36, drawn from 89/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 22% | Bolton 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 64%, Bolton 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.48 PPG, Bolton 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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