Notts County vs Stockport County – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Stockport County encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Notts County have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 4W 3D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.

Stockport County's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stockport County are 0.90 PPG clear of Notts County in recent League One fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Notts County lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 2–5 with Stockport County winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 54% versus Stockport County 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 51% | Stockport County 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 0.92 xG and Stockport County 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.899 / defence 0.966 | Stockport County attack 1.194 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.303. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Notts County games / 57 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Notts County 22% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 50%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Stockport County 2.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 60% | Stockport County 40%.

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