Morecambe 3-4 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Morecambe at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mazuma Stadium plays host to Morecambe versus AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Morecambe's overall League One record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Morecambe have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Morecambe at Mazuma Stadium this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mazuma Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Morecambe are significantly better at Mazuma Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.50 PPG across 6 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 1L. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Morecambe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Morecambe 40% and AFC Wimbledon 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 40% | AFC Wimbledon 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.13 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.938 / defence 0.995 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.975 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 0.881. Data: 5 Morecambe games / 6 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 42% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 28%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | AFC Wimbledon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Morecambe at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Morecambe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Morecambe 0% | AFC Wimbledon 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 42% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Morecambe 1.13 / AFC Wimbledon 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.938 / def 0.995 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.975 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.022 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
0.85
AFC Wimbledon xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Morecambe 3 - 4 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 42% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Morecambe's attack at 0.94x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.97x) against Morecambe's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.27
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Morecambe xG
Total xG
1.98
0.85
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Morecambe and 0.85 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Morecambe come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Morecambe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Morecambe against 1.20 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Morecambe are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. AFC Wimbledon's attacking output running into Morecambe's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Wimbledon in 80%.
Defensively: Morecambe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Morecambe or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Morecambe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Morecambe won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Morecambe
2
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon?
From 6 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Morecambe 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 40%, AFC Wimbledon 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Morecambe) and 60% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Morecambe keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Morecambe's games and 80% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Morecambe's recent games and 60% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Wimbledon defy the odds to beat Morecambe 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Morecambe 3-4 at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.13 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.85 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Morecambe beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 0.85 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 42% | Draw 31% | AFC Wimbledon 28%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 40%, AFC Wimbledon 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.40 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.