Lincoln 3-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lincoln at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shrewsbury travel to LNER Stadium to take on Lincoln in League One (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lincoln have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lincoln have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shrewsbury stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lincoln carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lincoln, 2 for Shrewsbury and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Lincoln 1–0 Shrewsbury — a Lincoln win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lincoln in-play tendencies (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 42% versus Shrewsbury 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lincoln 30% | Shrewsbury 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.07 xG and Shrewsbury 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.784 / defence 0.772 | Shrewsbury attack 0.831 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.218. Lincoln's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Lincoln have a tight defence (rating 0.772), which is pulling Shrewsbury's projected output down. Data: built from Lincoln's last 80 games and Shrewsbury's last 80.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 32% | Shrewsbury 26%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.39 | Draw 3.14 | Shrewsbury 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lincoln's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lincoln 50% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 27 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 32% | Shrewsbury 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Lincoln 1.07 / Shrewsbury 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.784 / def 0.772 | Shrewsbury attack 0.831 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Shrewsbury xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Lincoln vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Shrewsbury?
Lincoln 3 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Lincoln vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Shrewsbury part of?
Lincoln vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 42% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lincoln and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Lincoln vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.78) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 80 games and Shrewsbury's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.14
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lincoln xG
Total xG
1.85
0.78
Shrewsbury xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.78 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 80 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 26W 32D 22L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Shrewsbury's form line: 28W 13D 39L from 80 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.38 PPG, Shrewsbury on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.51 PPG from their last 39 home games (13W 20D 6L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 10W 7D 22L from their last 39 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Lincoln (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Lincoln vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 26W 32D 22L in their last 80 games (1.38 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 28W 13D 39L in their last 80 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Shrewsbury away?
Lincoln's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.51 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2024, when Lincoln won Lincoln 3-0 Shrewsbury.
Lincoln's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
2
Draws
3
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Shrewsbury?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 3, Shrewsbury have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Lincoln 1-1 Shrewsbury.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 46%, Shrewsbury 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Lincoln and 36% for Shrewsbury.
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 31% of games; Shrewsbury in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lincoln's recent matches and 33% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Lincoln's recent games and 36% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Lincoln's recent matches and 64% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Shrewsbury 3-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.07 xG and Shrewsbury 0.78 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.78 / defence 0.77 against Shrewsbury attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 42% | Draw 32% | Shrewsbury 26%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 30%, Shrewsbury 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.38 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 27
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →