Lincoln 1-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER Stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Port Vale in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LNER Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lincoln are significantly better at LNER Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale's overall League One record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lincoln, 0.80 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lincoln lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Port Vale — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 43% versus Port Vale 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 31% | Port Vale 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.60 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.034 / defence 0.860 | Port Vale attack 0.802 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.151. Data: 61 Lincoln games / 61 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 56% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 18%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Port Vale 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 20% | Port Vale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 56% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Lincoln 1.60 / Port Vale 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.034 / def 0.860 | Port Vale attack 0.802 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Port Vale xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Port Vale kick off?
Lincoln vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Lincoln vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Port Vale part of?
Lincoln vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 56% chance of winning, Port Vale a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lincoln and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Port Vale?
Record (2 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Port Vale in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.03x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.80x) against Lincoln's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.84
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.39
0.79
Port Vale xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.79 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 20W 24D 17L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale's form line: 18W 13D 30L from 61 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Lincoln against 1.10 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (11W 15D 4L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 7W 8D 15L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 20W 24D 17L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 18W 13D 30L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Port Vale away?
Lincoln's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.60 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Port Vale in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lincoln go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lincoln
1
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 4, Port Vale have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port Vale 0-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Port Vale?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 43%, Port Vale 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Lincoln) and 57% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 30% of games; Port Vale in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lincoln's recent matches and 50% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Lincoln's recent games and 57% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Port Vale tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Port Vale finished level at 1-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.60 xG and Port Vale 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Port Vale attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 56% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 18%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 31%, Port Vale 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.38 PPG, Port Vale 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.