Ipswich 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Portman Road to face Ipswich in League One, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 21 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ipswich's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derby (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Ipswich against 1.70 for Derby. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 47% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 47% | Derby 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.22 xG and Derby 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.238 / defence 0.814 | Derby attack 0.860 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.257. Derby's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Ipswich games / 12 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 44% | Draw 29% | Derby 27%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 40% | Derby 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 44% | Draw 29% | Derby 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Ipswich 1.22 / Derby 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.238 / def 0.814 | Derby attack 0.860 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Derby xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Derby kick off?
Ipswich vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Derby?
Ipswich 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Ipswich vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Derby part of?
Ipswich vs Derby is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 44% chance of winning, Derby a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ipswich and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Derby in?
Ipswich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 1.24x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.86x) against Ipswich's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 60/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.40
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.10
0.88
Derby xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.88 for Derby, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ipswich's recent record stands at 27W 18D 13L from 58 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 23L across 58 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 15W 10D 4L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 5W 8D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.03 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Derby in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 27W 18D 13L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Derby away?
Ipswich's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.90 PPG; Derby away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Derby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Derby have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Derby 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Derby?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 45%, Derby 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ipswich) and 31% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Derby in 31%; Derby in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ipswich's recent matches and 34% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ipswich's recent games and 31% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Derby tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Derby in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Derby 1-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.22 xG and Derby 0.88 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Derby attack 0.86 / defence 0.75, drawn from 60/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 44% | Draw 29% | Derby 27%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 47%, Derby 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.