Ipswich 2-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ipswich at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ipswich welcome Accrington ST to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ipswich — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Accrington ST have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ipswich at 1.20 PPG versus Accrington ST's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 1 for Accrington ST and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 62% versus Accrington ST 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 62% | Accrington ST 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.49 xG and Accrington ST 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.022 / defence 1.115 | Accrington ST attack 0.679 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.236. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Ipswich games / 26 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 49% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 23%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Accrington ST 4.35. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 60% | Accrington ST 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 49% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Ipswich 1.49 / Accrington ST 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.022 / def 1.115 | Accrington ST attack 0.679 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Accrington ST xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Accrington ST kick off?
Ipswich vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Ipswich vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Accrington ST part of?
Ipswich vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 49% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ipswich and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Accrington ST in?
Ipswich (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.58
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.42
0.94
Accrington ST xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.94 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 9W 8D 9L from 26 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 10L across 26 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ipswich on 1.35 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 5W 5D 2L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 9W 8D 9L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Accrington ST away?
Ipswich's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.67 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ipswich's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
0
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Accrington ST have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2023, when Ipswich 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Accrington ST?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 67%, Accrington ST 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ipswich) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 33%; Accrington ST in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ipswich's recent matches and 42% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ipswich's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Accrington ST 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Accrington ST 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.49 xG and Accrington ST 0.94 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Accrington ST attack 0.68 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 49% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 23%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 62%, Accrington ST 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.35 PPG, Accrington ST 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.