Gillingham 0-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 16 as Gillingham welcome Accrington ST to Priestfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Gillingham have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's home record at Priestfield Stadium: 2W 2D 3L from 7 League One appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gillingham 1.00 PPG, Accrington ST 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gillingham register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Accrington ST in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gillingham 64% and Accrington ST 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 36% | Accrington ST 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.34 xG and Accrington ST 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.756 / defence 1.212 | Accrington ST attack 0.859 / defence 1.555. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.362. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.555 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Gillingham games / 14 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 35% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 39%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 71% | Accrington ST 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 35% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Gillingham 1.34 / Accrington ST 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.756 / def 1.212 | Accrington ST attack 0.859 / def 1.555 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Accrington ST xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Gillingham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Gillingham 0 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Gillingham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Accrington ST part of?
Gillingham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 35% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gillingham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gillingham and Accrington ST in?
Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.76x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.92
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.76
1.42
Accrington ST xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.42 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gillingham's recent record stands at 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 6L across 14 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Accrington ST by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Accrington ST in 64%.
Last 14 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Accrington ST away?
Gillingham's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.17 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gillingham and Accrington ST runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gillingham's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gillingham
3
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 4, Accrington ST have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Gillingham 2-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Accrington ST?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gillingham at 67%, Accrington ST at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gillingham) and 67% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Gillingham's games and 67% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gillingham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gillingham's matches and 67% of Accrington ST's.
Do Gillingham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gillingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Gillingham and Accrington ST drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.34 xG and Accrington ST 1.42 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Accrington ST attack 0.86 / defence 1.55, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 35% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 39%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 36%, Accrington ST 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Accrington ST's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.