Forest Green 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forest Green vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 32 as Forest Green welcome Charlton to The Bolt New Lawn. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forest Green stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 League One matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forest Green have posted 3W 0D 7L at The Bolt New Lawn — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Forest Green are significantly better at The Bolt New Lawn than their overall form suggests.
Charlton — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Forest Green, 0 for Charlton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Forest Green trading profile (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 51% versus Charlton 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 41% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 0.94 xG and Charlton 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.645 / defence 1.420 | Charlton attack 1.102 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.165. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Forest Green games / 75 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 19% | Draw 24% | Charlton 58%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Charlton 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 40% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 19% | Draw 24% | Charlton 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Forest Green 0.94 / Charlton 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.645 / def 1.420 | Charlton attack 1.102 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Charlton (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Charlton kick off?
Forest Green vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Charlton?
Forest Green 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Forest Green vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Charlton part of?
Forest Green vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 19% chance of winning, Charlton a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Forest Green and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Forest Green 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Forest Green and Charlton in?
Forest Green (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forest Green's attack rating (0.65) and Charlton's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Forest Green's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
19%
5.38
24%
4.20
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.76
1.82
Charlton xG
5.38
19%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
3%
33.27
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.82 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forest Green come into this having played 75 games, going 26W 22D 27L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.28 PPG from 75 outings (26W 18D 31L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forest Green on 1.33 PPG, Charlton on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forest Green's home form reads 16W 4D 16L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.08 points per game from 36 outings (10W 9D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Forest Green are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.32 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Charlton in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 26W 22D 27L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Charlton have gone 26W 18D 31L in their last 75 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Charlton away?
Forest Green's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.44 PPG; Charlton away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forest Green and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Forest Green
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2023, when Forest Green 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 33%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Forest Green) and 53% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Forest Green's recent matches and 64% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Forest Green's recent games and 53% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Charlton tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Forest Green 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Forest Green 0-1 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 0.94 xG and Charlton 1.82 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forest Green fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.65 / defence 1.42 against Charlton attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 19% | Draw 24% | Charlton 58%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 41%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 1.33 PPG, Charlton 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Forest Green (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.