Exeter City 0-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Exeter City at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Burton Albion meet at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St James Park, Exeter City have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Exeter City are significantly better at St James Park than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Exeter City's 1.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Exeter City — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 52% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 46% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 2.29 xG and Burton Albion 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.092 / defence 0.854 | Burton Albion attack 1.204 / defence 1.578. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.139. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.578 — this is suppressing Exeter City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Burton Albion have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Exeter City games / 54 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 62% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 18%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Burton Albion 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Exeter City (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Exeter City 40% | Burton Albion 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 62% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Exeter City 2.29 / Burton Albion 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.092 / def 0.854 | Burton Albion attack 1.204 / def 1.578 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Burton Albion xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Burton Albion kick off?
Exeter City vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Exeter City 0 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Exeter City vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Burton Albion part of?
Exeter City vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 62% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Exeter City and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Exeter City and Burton Albion in?
Exeter City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Exeter City's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (1.20x) against Exeter City's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
62%
1.62
20%
4.88
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Exeter City xG
Total xG
3.46
1.17
Burton Albion xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
10%
9.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
2%
55.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.17 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City's recent record stands at 26W 17D 11L from 54 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 28L across 54 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Exeter City by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 17W 6D 4L from 27 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 4W 6D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.09 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 26W 17D 11L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Burton Albion away?
Exeter City's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 2.11 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Exeter City
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Burton Albion?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 48%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Exeter City) and 56% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Exeter City's recent matches and 52% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Exeter City's recent games and 56% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Exeter City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Exeter City 0-2 at St James Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 2.29 xG and Burton Albion 1.17 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Exeter City fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against Burton Albion attack 1.20 / defence 1.58, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 62% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 18%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 46%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.