Derby 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Stevenage at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Derby have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Derby have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stevenage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Stevenage 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Stevenage 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.76 xG and Stevenage 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.255 / defence 1.015 | Stevenage attack 1.173 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 78 Derby games / 31 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 46% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Stevenage 3.23. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 70% | Stevenage 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 46% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Derby 1.76 / Stevenage 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.255 / def 1.015 | Stevenage attack 1.173 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Derby (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Stevenage xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Stevenage kick off?
Derby vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Stevenage?
Derby 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Derby vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Stevenage part of?
Derby vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 46% chance of winning, Stevenage a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Derby and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Derby and Stevenage in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.25) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.32
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Derby xG
Total xG
3.18
1.42
Stevenage xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Derby and 1.42 for Stevenage, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 77 games, going 39W 19D 19L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.79 PPG from 77 outings (39W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.77 PPG, Stevenage on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 20W 10D 7L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.54 points per game from 37 outings (15W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.39 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 39W 19D 19L in their last 77 games (1.77 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 39W 21D 17L in their last 77 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Stevenage away?
Derby's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Derby or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Stevenage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Derby 1-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 57%, Stevenage 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stevenage in 32%; Stevenage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Derby's recent matches and 49% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Stevenage tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Stevenage 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.76 xG and Stevenage 1.42 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Stevenage attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 78/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 46% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 31%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.77 PPG, Stevenage 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.