Derby 1-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Fleetwood Town at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fleetwood Town — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Derby have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Fleetwood Town 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Fleetwood Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Fleetwood Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 47% | Fleetwood Town 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.42 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.016 / defence 1.103 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.958 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.148. Data: 49 Derby games / 49 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 42% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Fleetwood Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Fleetwood Town 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 42% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.42 / Fleetwood Town 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.016 / def 1.103 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.958 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Derby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fleetwood Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Derby vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Derby 1 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Derby vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Derby vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 42% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Fleetwood Town?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Fleetwood Town 1W.
What form are Derby and Fleetwood Town in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.02) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.84
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Derby xG
Total xG
2.63
1.21
Fleetwood Town xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Derby and 1.21 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 22W 13D 14L from 49 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 18L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fleetwood Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 13W 6D 6L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 7W 9D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.12 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 22W 13D 14L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 17D 18L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Derby's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.80 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Derby or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Derby's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Fleetwood Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Fleetwood Town?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, Fleetwood Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 44% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Derby's games and 60% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 44% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Fleetwood Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.42 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.21 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fleetwood Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 42% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 32%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 47%, Fleetwood Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.